Red Alert!

With the election fanfare hogging the headlines and the political leadership intent on forging deals.. ahem.. alliances, significant developments in the neighbourhood seem to have escaped much notice. Pakistan has long been embroiled in controversies. With democracy serving only short stints in governing the country, it has been military control that has been the dominant power for quite sometime now. Dealing with escalating tensions with a neighbour ruled by the armed forces is one thing, but it is altogether another matter to deal with a historically hostile neighbour in the hands of militant groups.

The US invasion of Afghanistan was expected to have significant repercussions in Pakistan from Day One. While there were Taliban sympathizers and neutralists, support for the operation was nil. The Durand Line has always been a bone of contention between Pakistan and Afghanistan given the close association between the Pashtun tribes on both sides of the line. The retreating Taliban found refuge in the mountains of Pakistan. With a resurgent Taliban fighting a guerilla war with the Western forces in Afghanistan, the significant numbers in Pakistan have sought to expand their influence in the NWFP emboldened by their successes in Afghanistan. The campaign to enforce Shariah law in the Swat valley has been a terrifying one to watch even from afar. The Government had buckled in and inked a peace deal with the Taliban. That alone shows the influence and power of the Taliban in Pakistan.

The Provincial Government seems to be ready to comply with all the demands of the Taliban. Whereas the Pakistan Government under international pressure and fearing for the integrity of the nation, is reluctant to finalize the agreement. The fragile peace deal is in danger of disintegrating. The Taliban has started extending its tentacles beyond the Swat and have reached villages 100 km from Islamabad.

The equations in Pakistan are extremely difficult to understand and analyse. The ideologies are many and the players numerous. The situation cannot be predicted, it is anyone’s guess how events may unfold. The possibilities of infiltration and attack on Indian soil should they reach the borders with India is high, not to mention the trouble thay can cause operating out of PoK. While there is hope of international pressure and coercion containing a recognized government in Islamabad, the situation with a militant group gaining control over Islamabad or even significant territory is entirely different.

It is crucial for the Indian armed forces to be alert and ready to go at a moment’s notice. Actual confrontation appears a distant possibility, nevertheless one we should be prepared for. And the role of the intelligence agencies is manifold in this scenario. The threat of heightened infiltration and terrorist activities are very real. The Government of India should be ready to deal with any contingencies in near future. With all the attention focused on the elections, it is indeed a cause for concern as to how closely we are monitoring the fast evolving situation in out neighbouring nation and our level of preparedness in case of threat to our nation.

As I wrote this today morning, there was hardly any coverage in the electronic media on this. The news channels were screaming election-centric bickering. As the evening progressed, with situation turning tense in Pakistan due to yet another attack on the Lahore police academy, the media started taking notice. I do hope our security agencies and the government in general are watching the situation as well.